So I found myself talking with Tom last night, as a pair of disembodied hands played a series of LOST piano themes on YouTube. The topic of conversation was the impending Emmy Nominations (which were announced this morning), and whether or not one of the greatest dramatic series in the history of television would receive love from those who consider and pare down the list of nominees. I began by asking if Matthew Fox was going to finally receive a nomination, and Tom agreed that although he was more than deserving, he didn’t foresee anyone other than Terry O’Quinn or Michael Emerson getting recognized for their acting. I admitted that in my extensive work with Emmy screeners I knew that the two episodes to be submitted for consideration were “Ab Aeterno” and “The End,” and if voters watched the latter episode (the series finale) there was no way they could not see how great Fox is playing that role. I said, maybe the character sucked for multiple seasons, but he was awesome in that finale. Neither of us mentioned the music of LOST, because for it to not receive an Emmy nod would be a sign of widespread retardation the likes of which haven’t been witnessed since that time The Retard asked me to push his Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle toy van down a flight of stairs, then cried to his mom that I broke it after it — surprise! — broke.
So I woke up this morning, went for a run — and no punks tried to race me, because I’m King Shit Of Runyon Canyon Fucking Mountain now — and then came home to read through the official 2010 Emmy Nominations. I only skimmed through the miniseries categories, the animated stuff, and the comedy categories. By the way, what is this show, Gay, and why is it nominated in every comedy and musical category? Doesn’t matter. I only care about LOST. So, lets run down the show’s nominations, and try to handicap the odds of winning each. I should let you know, I failed every math course I took from my freshman year of high school through my freshman year of college. And I think odds and statistics are part of math…oh well.
Outstanding Art Direction For A Single-Camera Series
Gay – Pilot – Director’s Cut
Heroes – Brave New World
LOST – Ab Aeterno
Modern Family – Moon Landing
True Blood – Never Let Me Go – I WIll Rise Up – Frenzy
The Tudors – Episode #407
Okay, we can eliminate Heroes and The Tudors right off the bat, because the former sucks and the latter can’t be bothered to even name its episodes. True Blood is an atrocious show, mind-numbing and all kinds of horrible. That leaves the two ABC shows and FOX’s Gay show. I’d say that gives LOST 3:1 odds, but I’m pretty sure if it’s between two shows on one network and one show on another, the one show is going to win.
Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series
Breaking Bad – One Minute
Dexter – The Getaway
LOST – The End
Mad Men – Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency
Treme – Do You Know What It Means (Pilot)
To be honest, the only competition in this category as far as I’m concerned is Breaking Bad. The show that has earned my vote as the current best show on television put forth a stunning third season, and the episode nominated in this category, One Minute, was phenomenal. Jack Bender has earned his third nomination, and he’s never won. It’s categories such as this that will prove whether or not the awards show will be a celebration of LOST or not. I’d like to think LOST is a favorite here. Dexter and Treme have not interested me, plus HBO has a billion nominations this year, so I don’t think either of those shows will win. Although both LOST and Breaking Bad won this category in their first year of eligibility for their respective pilot episodes, so maybe Treme will win. AMC has two shows nominated in this category. By the logic expressed above, that means it’s probably going to be LOST that wins…but I like my argument for Treme, so that will probably win. If I know anything about the Emmy Awards (and I don’t) it’s that you don’t fuck with HBO.
Outstanding Single-Camera Picture Editing For A Drama Series
Breaking Bad – No Mas
Dexter – The Getaway
LOST – The End
Mad Men – The Gypsy And The Hobo
Mad Men – Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency
Well, I’d say the show that receives two nominations in a single category is a shoe-in to win, but I don’t know the first thing about single-camera picture editing, so this one appears to be anyone’s game. I know one thing, Dexter isn’t winning against these three heavyweight shows. I’d say LOST is 9:1, with Mad Men playing the heavily-favored likely winner.
Outstanding Music Composition For A Series (Original Dramatic Score)
Batman – Michael McCuistion, Lolita Ritmanis, Kristopher Carter, Michael Jelenic, James Tucker
Flash Forward – Ramin Djawadi
LOST – Michael Giacchino
Psych – Adam Cohen / John Robert Wood
24 – Sean P. Callery
Oscar Winner Michael Giacchino should have no problems winning this category. I just hope they ask him to conduct music for the awards show, or he shows up in his “Conductor” DHARMA jumpsuit to accept the award. If he’s not the favorite — nay, if he doesn’t win this award — the whole Emmy Awards show is a sham.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
Breaking Bad – Bryan Cranston
Dexter – Michael C. Hall
Friday Night Lights – Kyle Chandler
House – Hugh Laurie
LOST – Matthew Fox
Mad Men – Jon Hamm
Cranston has won this award two years in a row now, and for good reason. He is absolutely amazing as Walter White in Breaking Bad. I thought House was a comedy. Oh well, none of that matters. I think it’s either Fox or Cranston. I don’t think anyone else has even a close shot. Cranston could very well go three-for-three, but I think Fox has a real opportunity here. It might be because the show has ended, but it was exciting enough for him to be nominated, I don’t think at this point an Emmy is out of the question.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Breaking Bad – Aaron Paul
Damages – Martin Short
LOST – Terry O’Quinn
LOST – Michael Emerson
Mad Men – John Slattery
Men Of A Certain Age – Andre Braugher
Terry O’Quinn won for his performance in 2007, and Michael Emerson won for his performance in 2009. If either actor is going to win this award for the second time, I’d say it’s going to be O’Quinn. Michael Emerson was pretty quiet for most of this season, and O’Quinn played the Man In Black perfectly. To be honest, I was hoping that Jonathan Banks should have been nominated for his depiction of Mike in Breaking Bad. And if he were nominated, I’d say he was by far the best of the nominees. Instead Aaron Paul was nominated. That’s still very cool, but I don’t think he’s going to win. To be honest, I think name recognition will prove the difference and Martin Short will win this award. It’s a hunch I have. Lazy voters. But hey, if he doesn’t win, LOST having two nominees means the show can definitely succeed in this category.
Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series
Big Love – Mary Kay
Big Love – Sissy Spacek
The Cleaner – Shirley Jones
Damages – Lily Tomlin
Law & Orders: SVU – Ann-Margret
LOST – Elizabeth Mitchell
This one came as a huge shock, if only because Juliet appears for about 30 seconds in “The End,” and that’s it. Then again, that was 30 super-intense, emotional seconds, that had everyone in the room crying…so…I don’t know. It’s awesome that she got nominated for her work on LOST when V was such a miserable failure this year. Since I don’t really know any of the other shows, I’m going to again guess that one of the big names will win simply due to recognition. Sissy Spacek or Lily Tomlin will probably win. I’m gonna go with Tomlin, I don’t know why.
Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Dexter
The Good Wife
LOST
Mad Men
True Blood
Again, this is going to come down to the AMC shows and LOST. Five years ago, LOST won this category for the show’s pilot episode. I think the circle will remain unbroken, and the show will again be victorious in its finale season. But, fuck man, this last season of Breaking Bad was so dark, intense, and amazing…it could definitely win. I don’t watch any of those other shows, so…well, I know True Blood isn’t winning anything — that last season sucked enough to make me swear of the show forever. It can’t win. It won’t win. A lot of people like Mad Men, but didn’t that show win literally every award two years ago? It’s had its day. I’d put LOST and Breaking Bad at even money to win.
Outstanding Special Class Programs
LOST
82nd Annual Academy Awards
Avatar: Enter The World Of Pandora
The Daily Show: Ask A Correspondent
30 Rock: Webisodes
63rd Annual Tony Awards
Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games Opening Ceremony
Uh… I don’t know what this is, and it’s hard to tell what is going to win this category when you’re comparing scripted television to live events. I met Gregg Nations at the LOST art gallery opening in Los Angeles before this season started, and he was so nice and fun to talk to that I want to see him win an Emmy. It wouldn’t surprise me if he knew more about the show than anyone else who worked on LOST. Go Gregg, win an Emmy! (You probably won’t, but I’ll be pulling for you anyway!)
Outstanding Sound Editing For A Series
Breaking Bad
Fringe
LOST
True Blood
24
I know what sound editing is, but I don’t really know how to tell the difference between sound editing in different shows. It’s not something I normally pay attention to when I’m viewing something for the first — or even tenth — time. That said, I’m going to venture a guess that this award will go to either LOST or 24, because if they don’t win in any of the other major categories, these two groundbreaking shows that both drew to a close this year will need to walk away with something to show for their finale seasons. Dumb logic? Yes. Correct logic? We’ll see…
Outstanding Sound Mixing For A Comedy Or Drama Series
Dexter
Gay
House
LOST
24
See: above. If Gay sweeps every category to win all one million of its nominations, that’s the only reason LOST or 24 won’t win this category. Oh, that is, unless one of these sound mixers is a perennial winner, or has won an Oscar in recent years. If so, that guy’s gonna win instead. By the way, in the miniseries category for this same award, The Pacific was nominated four times for four different episodes. No other miniseries was nominated. That’s pretty impressive.
Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series
Friday Night Lights – Rolin Jones
The Good WIfe – Michelle King, Robert King
LOST – Damon Lindelof, Carlton Cuse
Mad Men – Robin Weith, Matthew Weiner
Mad Men – Matthew Weiner, Erin Levy
Okay, this is the pair’s fifth nomination in six seasons. They haven’t won yet. If they don’t win this year, there is no justice in this world. Although any category where a show is nominated twice usually boasts well for that show, I think Darlton will finally receive the recognition they so deserve for writing some amazing television. For all the jokes I’ve made in the past about LOST and its writing, I thought season six — once we moved away from the temple and the first few flash sideways episodes — was top notch, especially as the season drew to its conclusion. They really impressed me those last three or four weeks, and the finale was as good as I could have asked for (from a writing standpoint). I think Darlton wins this one. I know I stopped giving odds for all these categories, but I would say it’s 2:1. I don’t know why, but there you go, there are your odds.
There you have it! I’ve done thie impossible, I’ve written a really, really long blog post about a fucking awards show. I feel like such a loser. Please do not hesitate to kick my ass the next time you see me in person. Call me a wuss while you’re at it, or a nancy boy. I deserve it.
Michael Giacchino – Oceans Apart
Michael Giacchino – Looking Glass Half Full
July 8th, 2010
You poof
July 10th, 2010
Dexter should win over LOST. That show jumped the shark a long time ago.
August 15th, 2010
Wonderful post, I loved your comments. Although I suspect GLEE might win for sound mixing, since it is all about the music. I’m not a GLEE fan (I think they’re called “gleeks”), but considering that only two main characters are gay (and one is not open if I remember correctly), and that half the country is in love with the show, I think it should be called by its proper name. Save “gay” for references to people who actually ARE. (By this usage, one could call “24″ “Running Man.”) I could discuss a few more of prognostications with you too, but I’ll save that for another day. I will say this: Mad Men was NOT nearly as good last season as past seasons or this season so far, which might bode well for LOST. But “Guy” (the infamous lawnmower ep) and about two other eps are still pretty good. Oh, and BTW, Elizabeth Mitchell was also in LA X, Part I. And I suspect this is a consolation Emmy nod for her work last season, for which her lack of a nom was a crime. (Reminds me of Oscar, Paul Newman for The Color of Money instead of The Verdict, Russell Crowe for Gladiator instead of The Insider and Denzel Washington for Training Day instead of, well, almost everything he did before Training Day. Not that those Oscars weren’t deserved, it’s just that the prior work was at least as or more critically acclaimed. And “Dexter” is on Showtime, not HBO. Anyway, even though there are a few other good candidates (e.g., The Good Wife), I’m pulling for LOST to sweep. Thanks for the breakdown and amusing post.